GBTC Outflows: Forecasting Total Bitcoin Selling Pressure & Market Impact

The following is a heuristic analysis of GBTC outflows and is not intended to be strictly mathematical, but instead to serve as a tool to help people understand the current state of GBTC selling from a high level, and to estimate the scale of future outflows that may occur.

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January 25, 2024 – Since Wall Street came to Bitcoin under the auspices of Spot ETF approval, the market has been met with relentless selling from the largest pool of bitcoin in the world: the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) which held more than 630,000 bitcoin at its peak. After conversion from a closed-end fund to a Spot ETF, GBTC’s treasury (3% of all 21 million bitcoin) has bled more than $4…

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