On the Margin Newsletter: Crypto markets react to Trump assassination attempt

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Welcome to the On the Margin Newsletter, brought to you by Ben Strack and Casey Wagner. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:

How an eventful weekend impacted markets, and what it could mean for crypto.
You’ve heard about SAB 121. But do custodians really need to do anything differently? 
An overview of this week’s economic calendar and what we are watching. 

Trump’s link to crypto markets

Last month’s presidential debate — despite shaking up election-related Polymarket odds — didn’t move crypto…

Read more on Blockworks

LATEST: Bitcoin Reserves Increase by $62 Million as Miner Sales Drop

Bitcoin miners are signaling confidence in the market’s future, as evident from the latest data showing a notable decrease in their selling activities. Glassnode’s recent chart highlights this trend, with a significant reduction in the 30-day percentage of mined supply sold by miners, who now hold $62 million worth of Bitcoin. This adjustment follows the halving event in April 2024, which saw miners initially increase their sales to cover operational costs due to the reduction in block rewards.

The chart also reveals a recovery in miner balances, which are now on an upward trajectory, indicating a strategic shift towards retaining Bitcoin amidst a bullish market outlook. The black line representing miner balances (minus Patoshi) climbs, suggesting miners are increasingly opting to hold onto their mined Bitcoin for potential future gains.

This strategic shift mirrors historical patterns where miners have tended to hold more during periods of market optimism. With the Bitcoin price also showing a steady rise, as depicted by the orange line on the chart, the current behavior underscores miners’ belief in Bitcoin’s continued value growth, encouraging them to accumulate more and sell less of their newly mined coins.

Glassnode

Daily US Bitcoin ETFs Net Flow Analysis (As of July 15, 2024)

As of mid-July 2024, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs demonstrate notable fluctuations in their holdings and net flows, signaling intriguing shifts in investor strategies and market dynamics.

BlackRock’s IBIT leads with an increase of +2,072 BTC, boosting its holdings to a substantial 316,276 BTC. This suggests strong investor confidence in BlackRock’s management of Bitcoin assets. Conversely, Grayscale’s GBTC sees a decrease of 668 BTC, adjusting its total to 272,661 BTC, possibly reflecting a realignment or cash-outs by investors.

Fidelity’s FBTC ETF significantly ups its game with an impressive inflow of +1,989 BTC, indicating a bullish investor stance towards Fidelity’s offering. Meanwhile, smaller funds like Bitwise and Ark Invest show positive but more modest inflows, suggesting steady, if cautious, interest in their products.

The total net inflow for all featured ETFs stands at +4,184 BTC, representing a financial boost of around $263 million. The aggregated holdings now total 885,948 BTC, valued at $55.7 billion. These figures underscore the substantial influence and continued growth of Bitcoin within the ETF sector, reflecting broader financial market trends and the maturing landscape of cryptocurrency investments.

Disclaimer: Market capitalizations and data can vary in real-time. The information provided here is intended purely for educational purposes and should not, under any circumstances, be construed as financial advice.

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Reflections on Bitcoin Culture

I admit I’m nostalgic for Noam Chomsky. Chomsky is a controversial figure, but he’s also a hero for his writings on consent and conformity, and he was perhaps the most articulate in calling out the development of the deep state. Now 95 years old, he had a massive stroke last year and can no longer speak. This article isn’t really about him, but it is inspired by him. Bitcoin is an electronic peer-to-peer cash system that is working, but the world we’ve built around it is incredibly alienated and disconnected from the rest of society. We’ve been effectively siloed, and anyone who thinks this will help adoption is dreaming. I think the room stinks and that this little Bitcoin world isn’t…

Read more on BitcoinMagazine

LATEST: After study, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Strongly Believes in Bitcoin

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, has recently declared Bitcoin the ‘digital gold’ of the future, marking a significant shift from his previous skepticism. In an interview, Fink highlighted Bitcoin’s role as a valid long-term investment, influenced by the asset’s robust performance and the successful launch of the firm’s Spot BTC ETF earlier this year. Fink emphasized the importance of Bitcoin in diversifying investment portfolios, signifying a major endorsement from the financial giant.

The year 2024 has been pivotal for Bitcoin, witnessing the launch of the first crypto-based ETF in the United States and attracting substantial institutional investments. This surge in interest propelled Bitcoin to a record high of $73,000 in March. Fink’s acknowledgment of Bitcoin’s legitimacy underscores its growing acceptance among traditional financial institutions.

Reinforcing his belief in Bitcoin, Fink described the cryptocurrency as a critical financial instrument that provides an investment opportunity beyond traditional government control. This perspective showcases a dramatic transformation in Fink’s view, who now sees Bitcoin as an essential component of financial portfolios, akin to a powerful financial hedge.

CNBC

BNB Up More Than 6% In 24 hours

Over the past 24 hours, BNB’s BNB/USD price has risen 6.75% to $572.6. This continues its positive trend over the past week where it has experienced a 13.0% gain, moving from $502.74 to its current price. As it stands right now, the coin’s all-time high is $717.48.

The chart below compares the price movement and volatility for BNB over the past 24 hours (left) to its price movement over the past week (right). The gray bands are Bollinger Bands, measuring the volatility for both the daily and weekly price movements. The wider the bands are, or the larger the gray area is at any given moment, the larger the volatility.

The trading volume for the coin has fallen 40.0% over the past week,…

Read more on Benzinga

LATEST: Crypto Inflows Hit $17.8 Billion, Led by Bitcoin and Ether Surge

Digital asset investment products have surged to a new yearly record, amassing over $17.8 billion in inflows, indicating a robust recovery in the crypto market. This milestone surpasses the previous record of $10.6 billion in 2021, with the U.S. leading significant investments, followed by substantial buys in Switzerland. Bitcoin’s substantial investment inflow of $1.35 billion—the fifth-largest weekly record—has propelled its price past the $60,000 threshold.

Amidst overall market enthusiasm, Ether ranks second in investment flows, drawing over $72 million last week alone. This boost is largely driven by the anticipation of the upcoming U.S. spot Ethereum ETF, which is expected to receive final regulatory comments shortly. The investment community remains optimistic about this development, seeing it as a potential game-changer for Ether’s valuation.

Despite some outflows from short Bitcoin-related products, totaling $8.6 million, the prevailing investor sentiment remains bullish. The positive adjustments follow recent price dips attributed to external factors like governmental sales and economic indicators, suggesting a strategic accumulation of digital assets by savvy investors.

Data

Corey Paul | The Intersection of Golf and Bitcoin

Why do people attack a technology that could unlock global abundance? The answer is simple: fear.

Unlearning our childhood beliefs about money is challenging. Bitcoin demands we rethink money itself – a seismic shift that scares many.

Unlike fiat systems where central authorities can create money at will, benefiting a select few at the expense of others, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized nature foster cooperation and value creation for all participants.

This fundamental difference encourages more positive-sum outcomes, but it requires a paradigm shift that many resist. This resistance to change is not just theoretical, it is a real challenge faced by Bitcoin…

Read more on bitcoinnews