Bitcoin’s latest onchain and derivatives data point to a constructive setup, with VanEck highlighting negative funding rates and a clustered hash rate drawdown alongside softer volatility and cautious positioning. 

The firm notes in their latest report that realized volatility fell from about 56% to 41% as US‑Iran tensions eased, while the 7‑day average funding rate dropped to roughly -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023 and in the 10th percentile of readings since late 2020.

Since 2020, bitcoin’s average 30‑day return during periods of negative funding has been 11.5%, compared with 4.5% across all periods, with a 77% hit rate for positive performance. When annualized…

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