Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 6% since revisiting its 200-day moving average near $82,000 earlier this month, but K33 Research argues February’s $60,000 bottom still marks this cycle’s maximum drawdown.

Current Pattern Looks Different From 2014, 2018, 2022

K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde pointed out that Bitcoin spent 189 days between the November 200-day MA breakdown and May retest—far longer than the 96, 132, and 85 days seen in prior cycles. 

Bitcoin also remains more than 20% down during that period compared to positive returns in 2014 and 2022 and a shallower 8% drawdown in 2018.

The 200-day moving average trended higher in prior years but lower in 2026, creating a fundamentally…

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