Election uncertainty may put market certainty on the back burner

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Hold your horses.

While some folks around crypto think we could see the bullish rally take off after we get the election results, Empire’s Jason Yanowitz isn’t so sure. 

In Friday’s Roundup, he said that he doesn’t think we see the markets “rip” until potentially January or even February. 

“There could be more uncertainty” in November and December, he added, pointing out that he thinks the election results could be close.

“Both sides are already prepping for an all-out war to contest the election,” Yanowitz said. Last election, it took the Associated Press, for…

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I Did Basically Nothing And Got $500 in Bitcoin

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A couple of summers ago, I used to order lunch via Grubhub while working long days in the office. When ordering, I always made sure I was logged into Lolli, a bitcoin rewards platform with a browser extension, so that I earned sats back on my purchases.

I eventually stopped eating out so much and began cooking food at home, and over time, I mostly forgot about how I used to stack sats on everyday purchases with Lolli. However, I…

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What a metaverse coin and a Trump-linked stock have in common

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They say the metaverse is dead, but it’s not so! It’s just that some are deader than others.

Social media platforms often operate in their own Bizarro Worlds. Boomer-brand conspiracies are hot on Facebook, street interviews are huge on Instagram and TikTok’s brain is hardwired for viral earworms spread via super-basic dance choreography.

X and Truth Social had much less in common when Trump launched the latter in February 2022, Trump initially formed Trump Media & Technology Group one month after he was banned from Facebook and Twitter over the Capitol attack on Jan. 6.

Trump was…

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LATEST: Survey Shows Turkish Investors Choose Cryptocurrencies Over Stocks and Real Estate

A recent survey conducted by cryptocurrency exchange Paribu shows a significant shift in investment preferences among Turkish investors. The “2024 Cryptocurrency Awareness and Perception Survey” indicates that cryptocurrencies are now preferred over traditional investments like real estate and stocks. Despite gold and foreign currency leading in preferences, crypto has surged ahead with 30% of investors ranking it as a top investment choice, marking an increase from previous years.

Paribu’s research content manager, Nergis Nurcan Karababa, highlights that the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies is driven by their transaction speeds, accessibility, and potential for high returns. Karababa notes, “Compared to traditional financial products, crypto assets may experience much higher rates of adoption.” The survey also reveals an increasing interest from institutional companies, further boosting the crypto trend.

While awareness of cryptocurrencies among Turks is nearly universal at 99%, understanding of blockchain technology lags, with only 72% unfamiliar with the concept. Despite this gap, the number of people recognizing blockchain’s role in cryptocurrencies increased, indicating a rising curiosity and engagement with the technology underpinning digital assets.

Survey

LATEST: Tether Reports $2.5 Billion in Net Profits for Third Quarter, $7.7 Billion YTD

Tether, the issuer of the third largest cryptocurrency by market cap, USDT, announced a substantial $2.5 billion net profit for the third quarter. This figure has boosted its year-to-date earnings to $7.7 billion as USDT’s market capitalization approaches $120 billion. Notably, $1.3 billion of these profits stemmed from yields on U.S. Treasury holdings, with an additional $1.1 billion attributed to the appreciation of gold reserves, as shared by CEO Paolo Ardoino on social media.

The company’s financial health is reinforced by a positive quarterly attestation from BDO Italy, showcasing $125.5 billion in assets against $119.4 billion in liabilities. Tether’s robust asset base includes $105 billion in cash equivalents and a significant stash of U.S. Treasury bills, further establishing its strong position in the market.

Amidst these financial successes, Tether continues to diversify, with its venture arm actively expanding into sectors like energy and artificial intelligence. Despite facing allegations from a recent Wall Street Journal report regarding potential legal issues, Ardoino has affirmed Tether’s commitment to compliance with U.S. regulations, underscoring its strategic role in the growing digital asset ecosystem.

Report 

September PCE figures shouldn’t scare markets 

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.

One thing that is not spooky this Halloween is the latest PCE report, which showed prices increased as expected and annual inflation inched closer to the Fed’s 2% target. 

So Powell probably isn’t having any nightmares tonight, or at least any inflation-related ones. 

Prices increased by 0.2% month over month, according to the PCE index for September. Annual inflation for the 12 months ended September came in at 2.1%. 

It’s the lowest annual rate since February 2021. August’s annual headline figure came in at 2.3% after an upward revision Thursday, so things are moving in…

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MicroStrategy shares ‘audacious’ plan to buy more bitcoin

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MicroStrategy revealed yesterday that it intends to…wait for it…buy more bitcoin. 

I’d bet you weren’t on the edge of your seat, because you know that’s what the largest corporate holder of bitcoin — now with 252,220 BTC — does. But this time, the strategy looks a little different given what is dubbed as the “21/21 plan.” 

MicroStrategy plans to raise $21 billion from equity issuances through a new at-the-market facility, as well as another $21 billion by issuing fixed income securities.

The former facility is the largest of its kind in the history of US capital…

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Breaking down the recent TBAC borrowing recommendations

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.

A couple of years ago, the quarterly refunding announcements (QRA) from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) were dry and boring meetings that only dorks like myself paid attention to. The TBAC advises the Treasury on debt issuance strategy for the upcoming quarter. 

Ever since rates came off zero and fiscal deficits exploded, however, market participants have started to pay close attention to how the government is funding itself. Supply and demand are drivers of US Treasury yields. Therefore, if more supply is coming onto the long end of the yield curve, that will have a…

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