Bitcoin’s Next Leg Down Is Coming And It Will Catch Most People Off Guard, Says Benjamin Cowen

The Midterm Year Pattern

Cowen points to a consistent pattern across midterm years: Bitcoin finds a low in February, rallies to a lower high in March, then drops into April. 

This played out in 2014, 2018, and 2022—and appears to be repeating in 2026.

Bitcoin’s year-to-date returns historically start heading down around day 82-90 of the year.

The market currently sits on day 86, placing the potential breakdown within the next week or two based on historical precedent.

In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin found resistance at the 21-week EMA or 20-week SMA during March rallies before rolling over. In 2026, Bitcoin hasn’t even reached that resistance level yet, suggesting weakness compared to…

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Trust Wallet Launches Agent Kit That Lets AI Execute Crypto Transactions

Trust Wallet, the self-custody crypto wallet with over 220 million downloads, announced the launch of the Trust Wallet Agent Kit, a new infrastructure that enables AI agents to execute real crypto transactions across more than 25 blockchains — while keeping users fully in control.

For the first time, AI can take actions in a user’s wallet — but only within the permissions and boundaries defined by the user. 

The Agent Kit integrates with the Model Context Protocol (MCP) and is available via a command line interface (CLI), giving developers the tools to build and test AI-powered crypto workflows safely and efficiently, according to a press release shared with Bitcoin…

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Why Is Better Home Stock Gaining Thursday?

This innovative approach allows millions of Americans to secure home loans by pledging Bitcoin or USDC without needing to liquidate their assets.

Details

The partnership aims to democratize homeownership for the 52 million Americans who own digital assets. It will enable them to use their crypto holdings as collateral for conforming mortgages.

The tokenized asset pledge acts as a substitute for the cash down payment. This means customers can utilize their digital assets, without selling them, to satisfy down payment requirements for a mortgage.

In addition, the token-backed mortgages will be compliant with Fannie Mae guidelines, ensuring they remain standard conforming loans.

Max Branzburg,…

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XRP Plunges 4% As Leverage Drops 78%: What Is Going On?

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is down 4% on the day, despite Binance leverage ratios plunging 78% from 0.59 in mid-July 2025 to just 0.13 now as speculative positions flush out and the derivatives market resets.

The Leverage Unwind

Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio for XRP has collapsed from around 0.59 in mid-July to 0.13, indicating that most highly leveraged positions have been flushed out. 

Analysts calculate this ratio by dividing an exchange’s open interest by its coin reserves to measure average leverage used.

At the same time, XRP’s open interest on Binance stands at only $375 million, significantly lower than peaks recorded over the past year. 

“The main takeaway is that speculative…

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Brazil Passes Law Turning Seized Crypto Into Public-Security War Chest

Brazil has enacted a landmark law that allows authorities to channel crypto seized from criminal organizations directly into public security initiatives, marking a major step in the country’s crackdown on organized crime.

Signed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Law No. 15.358 equips law enforcement with unprecedented powers to freeze, block, and seize both traditional and digital assets, including crypto, during investigations. 

The legislation also permits the provisional use of seized cryptoassets, with judicial approval, to fund police operations, intelligence work, officer training, and other public security efforts—even before final convictions.

The law specifically…

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Coinbase, Fannie Mae To Introduce Crypto-Backed Mortages

How The Product Works

Home buyers get a traditional 15- or 30-year Fannie-backed mortgage from Better, then take out a separate loan backed by either Bitcoin or USDC to cover the down payment, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

This structure lets buyers avoid triggering capital gains taxes from selling crypto while maintaining exposure to the market.

The trade-off comes at a cost. Paying interest on two loans instead of making a cash down payment increases the overall cost of homeownership significantly. 

Interest rates on both loans would range from comparable to typical Fannie Mae mortgages to 1.5 percentage points higher.

Once the homeowner pledges the crypto as collateral,…

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MARA Dumps $1.1 Billion In Bitcoin To Cut Debt By 30%

MARA, a Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin miner expanding into digital energy and

AI infrastructure, announced a major balance sheet restructuring on Thursday. 

The company said they sold 15,133 Bitcoin for approximately $1.1 billion between March 4 and March 25 to fund the repurchase of its 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2030 and 2031.

The company will repurchase $367.5 million of its 2030 notes for $322.9 million and $633.4 million of its 2031 notes for $589.9 million. 

The purchases represent an approximate 9% discount to par value and are expected to generate roughly $88.1 million in cash savings. The transactions are scheduled to close on March 30 and March 31, pending customary…

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Circle Could Double To $75B By 2030 Despite 20% Stock Crash, Says Bitwise’s Matt Hougan

Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) could reach a $75 billion valuation by 2030 despite Tuesday’s 20% crash on Clarity Act news, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s analysis.

The $75 Billion Math

Hougan’s valuation model uses three key assumptions: stablecoin market size, Circle’s market share, and revenue margins. 

Citigroup (NYSE:C) forecasts the stablecoin market will grow from roughly $200 billion today to $1.9 trillion by 2030.

Hougan assumes Circle maintains this 25% share, giving the company control of about $475 billion in stablecoins by 2030.

Circle earns interest by investing customer deposits into U.S. Treasuries, which currently pay around 4%. 

However, the company pays…

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Coinbase, Fannie Mae Launch Bitcoin-Backed Mortgages

Coinbase is partnering with Better Home & Finance to roll out crypto-backed mortgages backed by Fannie Mae, marking a step toward integrating digital assets into traditional housing finance.

The new offering allows qualified borrowers to pledge Bitcoin or USDC as collateral for a down payment without selling their holdings, avoiding potential capital gains taxes while maintaining exposure to their assets.

Structured as conforming loans, the mortgages carry the same standards and protections as traditional Fannie Mae-backed loans. Better originates and services the loans, while Coinbase provides custody and infrastructure for the pledged bitcoin or crypto.

The product targets…

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Senator Lummis Says America Can’t Wait Until 2030, But Coinbase Still Blocking Stablecoin Bill

Coinbase Holds The Line

Representatives of Coinbase told Senate offices this week that the exchange couldn’t support the latest version of the legislation due to significant concerns about “stable yield language,” according to Punchbowl News. 

This marks the second time CEO Brian Armstrong has withdrawn support, famously stating in January that “we’d rather have no bill than a bad bill.”

The bill bans crypto platforms from paying users to hold stablecoins, similar to how banks pay interest on savings accounts. 

Coinbase earns substantial revenue by holding customer stablecoins and collecting the interest generated from backing assets like U.S. Treasuries. The legislation would…

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