Prediction markets are signaling deep skepticism that President Donald Trump‘s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks will reach Americans in the first half of 2026, with traders giving virtually no chance of an early-year payout.

Betting On Delay: Creation Vs. Cash

Data from prediction platforms reveals a sharp divergence between the program’s potential creation and the actual delivery of funds.

On Polymarket, traders are giving the administration a coin-flip chance, pricing in a 45% probability that Trump will successfully create the tariff dividend program by June 30.

However, markets are far more pessimistic about Americans seeing that money quickly. According to Kalshi, the…

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Skybridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci named Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX) and Toncoin (CRYPTO: TON) as his top three altcoins to watch this year.

Why Scaramucci Believes In These Tokens

In an Altcoin Daily interview aired on Thursday, Scaramucci picked the three Layer-1 tokens despite their disappointing performance throughout 2025.

Scaramucci admitted to getting it wrong about TON, a token tied to the Telegram ecosystem.

“I mean, this tells you how wrong you can be and how humbling this life is in our world,” he said, pointing out how the coin collapsed from $7.50 when he bought it to around $1.50 today.

“But I think that’s going to be a token…

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A lawsuit accusing billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban and the NBA team Dallas Mavericks of defrauding investors by promoting a now-bankrupt cryptocurrency company was dismissed ahead of New Year’s Day.

Relief For Mark Cuban

The plaintiffs claimed that Cuban and his team had misled investors about Voyager Digital, a cryptocurrency lender that went bankrupt in 2022. The case was filed under various state securities laws and consumer fraud statutes.

In a Dec. 30 filing, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, under Judge Roy K. Altman, dismissed the case in its entirety, stating that the plaintiffs failed to establish the theory of “personal…

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Leading cryptocurrencies consolidated with thin liquidity on the first day of 2026, while stock futures rallied.

CryptocurrencyGains +/-Price (Recorded at 8:25 p.m. ET)Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC)+0.93%$88,601.49Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH)               +0.67%$2,999.74XRP (CRYPTO: XRP)                         +1.78%$1.87Solana (CRYPTO: SOL)                         +0.72%$126.30Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE)                         +7.20%$0.1265Sentiment Improves From ‘Extreme Fear’ To ‘Fear’

Bitcoin wobbled between $87,000 and $88,000 as bulls await a decisive breakout above $90,000. Trading activity remained…

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Bitcoin continues to trade below $88,000 heading into 2026 even as ETF flows turned positive into year-end.

Notable Statistics:

Coinglass data shows 88,263 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $131.74 million.        

SoSoValue data shows net inflows of $355 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $67.8 million.

In the past 24 hours, top gainers include Chiliz, Story and MemeCore.

Notable Developments:

Trader Notes: Crypto analyst Dami-Defi said Bitcoin is consolidating between $86,000 and $91,000 following the recent pullback.

However, the range sits below the 50-week exponential moving average and major resistance near…

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Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says 2025 reinforced a hard truth for the market: macroeconomic forces, not hype-driven cycle narratives, continue to dominate crypto price action.

What Happened: In his 2025 “Reflections” video, Cowen argued that while the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle still technically held, with a post-halving peak forming in Q4, the drawdown that followed looked far more like 2019 than the sharp crashes seen in prior cycles.

Instead of a blow-off top, the market experienced a slow, grinding decline driven by tightening liquidity and macro headwinds.

The Altseason That Never Arrived

Cowen addressed one of 2025’s biggest disappointments: the absence of a broad altcoin…

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