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Coinbase’s recent analysis highlights the speculative yet optimistic outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) as it nears its next halving event on April 15. Historically, Bitcoin has enjoyed significant gains around these events, with a 61% increase before and a 348% surge after previous halvings. However, the report urges caution, noting the speculative basis of these expectations due to limited historical data.
The halving, which halves Bitcoin’s mining rewards, potentially affects its supply and price. But external factors, such as macroeconomic trends, also play a crucial role. For instance, the boost Bitcoin experienced post-2020 halving was partly due to favorable monetary policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Recent price rallies have been driven more by enthusiasm for Bitcoin ETFs than the halving itself. Yet, with a high amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors, there’s a steady foundation. Positive moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve, including rate cuts, could further support Bitcoin and other risk assets, painting a complex picture for Bitcoin’s post-halving performance.
