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Analysts at Bernstein have increased their Bitcoin price target to $200,000 by the end of 2025, up from $150,000, citing unprecedented demand driven by the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The analysts, Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, anticipate ETFs managed by major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity to amass around $190 billion in assets under management by 2025, compared to the current $60 billion. They project that Bitcoin ETFs will represent approximately 7% of Bitcoin in circulation by 2025 and around 15% by 2033, with an estimated $15 billion in net new flows already attributed to these ETFs.
Another key factor highlighted by the analysts is the constrained supply of Bitcoin, particularly following the halving event in April, which reduced the miners’ block subsidy reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This halving has effectively decreased the new supply of Bitcoin from an average of 900 BTC per day to 450 BTC per day. The analysts argue that Bitcoin is currently in a new bull cycle, with the halving reducing sell pressure from miners while new demand catalysts emerge, leading to exponential price movements. Based on historical cycles, they anticipate Bitcoin to reach $200,000, representing a 2.8x appreciation from the current BTC price, by mid-2025. Beyond 2025, the analysts’ base case estimates project Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by the end of 2029 and $1 million by 2033.
