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“Macroeconomics in this original sense has succeeded: Its central problem of depression prevention has been solved.” 

— Robert Lucas, 2003

I’m old enough to remember when people thought recessions might not be a thing anymore. 

By the early 2000s, economists like Robert Lucas and Alan Greenspan argued that traditional recessions, in which a cyclical decline in demand led to a shrinking economy, were becoming an endangered species: less frequently seen and less dangerous when they were.

This was known as “The Great Moderation,” but just as the idea was catching on, it…

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