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Ever since COVID closed global economies in 2020, gauging where we stand in the business cycle has been a very difficult act. 

The typical business cycle looks as follows, and historically, it’s been fairly easy to have a general idea of where we stood by contrasting it with interest rates and monetary policy:

However, everything has been somewhat upside down in recent years, leaving many economists befuddled. 

For example, in 2022 we saw negative real GDP prints (initially at two but then revised down to one):

However, during that same time we saw one of the hottest…

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