ARK Invest has significantly revised its long-term outlook for Bitcoin, now projecting a bull case price target of approximately $2.4 million by 2030. The report lays out a comprehensive modeling framework based on Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM) potential, adoption trends, and assumptions around supply dynamics.

The updated target represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~72% between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2030. In comparison, ARK’s base and bear case estimates stand at $1.2 million (CAGR ~53%) and $500,000 (CAGR ~32%), respectively.

Image via ARK Invest

“Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” the report notes,…

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