In an Apr. 12 podcast, Cowen outlined a realistic scenario based on historical cycles.

He said Bitcoin could decline about 70% from a potential peak near $126,000, with a temporary pause after a roughly 50% drop before reaching a final bottom later in the cycle.

Such drawdowns align with past corrections of 70% to 80% and reflect a weakening macro backdrop, including a late-stage business cycle and possible recession.

By contrast, the doomer view involves a more severe and prolonged downturn tied to broader stock market weakness.

In that case, even a 70% decline may not mark the bottom, with Bitcoin potentially falling below key levels, such as ETF launch prices, and taking longer to…

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