The Bear Market Zone

Bitcoin remains within bear market territory according to key on-chain pricing models. 

The realized price at $54,000 represents the average acquisition cost of all circulating supply. The True Market Mean at $78,000 narrows this calculation to only actively transacted coins.

Price trading within this band is historically consistent with a market that has not transitioned into a sustainable recovery. 

Bitcoin also trades below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $81,600, the level at which recent buyers collectively break even.

Until price reclaims $81,600, the mid to long-term bias tilts to the downside. Any rally into this zone will likely encounter meaningful…

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