Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has surged 7% since the start of the month as macro analyst Benjamin Cowen warned this mirrors the “bull trap” pattern that preceded massive sell-offs in every prior midterm cycle.

The Midterm Bear Market Playbook

Bitcoin is trading roughly 15% below its $87,500 yearly open, hitting the exact mathematical target for an early March relief rally. 

Cowen argues Bitcoin’s 2026 price action identically mirrors the post-halving patterns of 2014, 2018, and 2022.

The structural pattern repeats across cycles: Bitcoin peaks in Q4 of the post-halving year (late 2025 this cycle). 

The asset grinds down to establish local lows in early and late February. This cycle, BTC…

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