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“100% of the information you have about any business reflects the past, and 100% of the value of that business depends on the future.” 

— Bill Miller

Are markets still forward-looking?

A core tenet of investing theory is that asset prices are driven by the market’s best (and sometimes worst) guesses about the future.

This is why stocks are valued on forward earnings multiples, not trailing ones. And bonds are priced on what the economy is expected to do, not what it’s already done.

It doesn’t feel like that’s what’s happening just now.

This week’s data showed…

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