Wall Street giant Citi has updated its year-end forecast for Bitcoin, setting a base-case target of $135,000. The bank also outlined a bullish scenario reaching $199,000, while a bearish case, driven by weak equities, could pull the price down to $64,000. Citi’s revised outlook reflects key factors, including user adoption, macroeconomic trends, and increasing demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

According to the report, Citi analysts project a 20% rise in user activity, supporting a $75,000 valuation on its own. Macroeconomic pressures, such as soft equity and gold performance, are expected to subtract $3,200, while an estimated $15 billion in additional ETF inflows could add $63,000. These elements combine to form the new $135,000 base-case forecast.

Since the U.S. approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, ETF flows have accounted for over 40% of recent price movements. Citi believes crypto’s deeper integration into traditional finance and accelerating ETF demand are pushing Bitcoin’s outlook higher, with upside risks outweighing downside pressure.