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In the world of macro, the FOMC roadshow has been sidelined as global markets and pundits are squarely focused on Trump’s trade policies and their impacts on the global economy. 

That creates a state of fragility with a bunch of crosscurrents. Economic activity is grinding to a halt as businesses have trouble making hiring and capital investment decisions without knowing what the outlook will be on tariffs. 

After some initial tariff frontrunning in January and February, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index cratered to a multi-year low: 

Traditionally — as economic activity…

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