Prediction markets are signaling deep skepticism that President Donald Trump‘s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks will reach Americans in the first half of 2026, with traders giving virtually no chance of an early-year payout.

Betting On Delay: Creation Vs. Cash

Data from prediction platforms reveals a sharp divergence between the program’s potential creation and the actual delivery of funds.

On Polymarket, traders are giving the administration a coin-flip chance, pricing in a 45% probability that Trump will successfully create the tariff dividend program by June 30.

However, markets are far more pessimistic about Americans seeing that money quickly. According to Kalshi, the…

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