Polymarket traders are giving Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) just a 31% chance to hit $100,000 in January, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) sits at 8% for $4,000 and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) at 14% for $2.40—signaling traders expect volatility without breakouts.

Bitcoin: Stuck In A $5,000-$15,000 Range

Bitcoin conviction is strongest near current levels and deteriorates rapidly above key thresholds.

Upside probabilities:

$90,000: 99%
$95,000: 60%
$100,000: 31%
$105,000: 14%
$110,000+: single-digit odds

The steep decay above $95,000 signals traders don’t expect buyers to absorb supply at higher levels.

Downside probabilities:

$85,000: 61%
$80,000: 26%
$75,000: 12%

Taken together,…

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